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Both global equities and bonds traded higher last week.
The theme of winners and losers continues. Normalization of economic activity is well off into the future, however, market price action is signaling participant’s willingness to reinvest in sectors of the economy heaviest hit by COVID. An improvement in infection rate data, the prospect of a vaccine rollout, and continued talk of additional stimulus have the potential to fuel further buying of equities.
Data from the web site RT.live are showing improvement in COVID infection rates. Ten states now have an RT below 1.0. This is encouraging news, suggesting infections are now moderating after a recent spike. This potential trend combined with a vaccine rollout could mean we are at the beginning of the end of COVID. It also means that the probability of further restrictions may continue to decrease. This is welcome news for equities. Recent excess deaths as measured by the CDC appear to be trending higher but are not anywhere near where they were early in the pandemic.
Link to the CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
Bookmark this COVID-19 site. https://rt.live
– Best
Cory Haupt
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