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Global equities retreated last week while bonds tried to stage a rally and then failed, thus remaining within what appears to be a down trend. BND, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF remained below the 20 day Exponential Moving Average and 50 day Simple Moving Average.
The coming week is election week. Expect volatility.
Recent excess deaths as measured by the CDC appear to be on the rise, following increasing infections. The web site rt.live indicated only 1 state with an Rt below 1.0. Reiterating from last week, while the prospect of newly imposed lock downs is not the base case scenario, the spike in cases certainly raises the probability of future actions that might restrict the economy.
The theme of winners and losers continues. The presidential election will put a twist on the theme and could significantly change the landscape.
Link to the CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
Bookmark this COVID-19 site. https://rt.live
– Best
Cory Haupt
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