Market Notebook

by | May 21, 2023

Discussion – 

Equity prices, as measured by ticker SPY, closed higher on the week, while bond prices, as measured by ticker BND, closed lower on the week.

SPY appeared to break higher out of consolidation, while BND appeared to break lower out of consolidation.

It is interesting to note last week’s strong positive market participant sentiment across equities in the face of continuing economic challenges. Clearly, market participants do not believe a U.S. Treasury default is likely. Additionally, it seems likely that market participants are looking past the near-term economic challenges to a point where the Federal Reserve halts interest rate increases.

Economic indicators within the Market Notebook remain mixed. Real economic activity will likely slow over the next few months as the Federal Reserve works to contain inflationary pressures.

The Conference Board’s recent Leading Economic Index release for the U.S. states, “…The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023…”

Jobless claims are to be watched as a key indicator of a potential recession. Thus far, jobless claims are not indicative of a recession.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.