Market Notebook

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by the ticker SPY, closed higher while bond prices, as measured by the ticker BND, closed lower over the last week.

SPY    +1.24%
BND    -0.19%

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY price appears to be trending upwards.

BND price appears to be trending upwards.

SENTIMENT:
Overall, last week’s sentiment was a delicate balance. The easing pivot from the Fed gave bulls fuel, but caution from central bankers, firm data, and stretched valuations kept tail risks front of mind. The market seems to be in a “measured optimism” mode rather than exuberance.

Looking ahead, the key sentiment catalysts to watch include:

– Core PCE / inflation surprises (especially if sticky)
– Next round of labor data (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment)
– Fed speeches / minutes for guidance (how dovish or hawkish)
– Earnings surprises (especially in tech / AI)
– Geopolitical / policy developments (shutdowns, tariffs)

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Economic fundamentals remain positive, with data suggesting the U.S. economy remains resilient. The Federal Reserve appears to be acting appropriately with two goals in mind: to keep inflation under control and support real economic activity.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.