Market Notebook

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by ticker SPY, closed marginally lower on the week, while bond prices, as measured by ticker BND, closed lower.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY appears established in an upward trend while BND price action suggests consolidation.

SENTIMENT:
Sentiment remains bullish U.S. equities. All else equal, expect the U.S. Presidential election to raise uncertainty through the remainder of the year.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Economic indicators within the Market Notebook remain mixed.

Market participants should be on the lookout for recessionary conditions following the first rate cut after a tightening cycle. It seems likely that the first rate cut will be in 2024. To avoid recessionary conditions, the Federal Reserve will have to get the timing of rate cuts exactly correct. Thus far, the Federal Reserve has managed the economic cycle well.

Jobless claims are to be watched as an important indicator of a potential recession. Thus far, jobless claims are NOT indicative of a near-term recession.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.