Market Notebook

MARKET COMMENTARY

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by ticker SPY, closed marginally lower on the week, while bond prices, as measured by ticker BND, closed higher.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Both SPY and BND might be considered in an upward trend. Recent price action in BND suggests possible consolidation.

SENTIMENT:
Sentiment remains bullish U.S. equities. Market participants are trading in a manner that suggests a belief that a new bull market has begun.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Economic indicators within the Market Notebook remain mixed.

From a timeline perspective, market participants want to be on close lookout for recessionary conditions following the first rate cut after a tightening cycle. It seems likely that the first rate cut will be in 2024. To avoid recessionary conditions, the Federal Reserve will have to get the timing of rate cuts exactly correct. Thus far, the Federal Reserve has managed the economic cycle well.

Jobless claims are to be watched as an important indicator of a potential recession. Thus far, jobless claims are NOT indicative of a near-term recession.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.