Market Notebook

by | Oct 15, 2023

Discussion – 

Equity prices, as measured by ticker SPY, and bond prices, as measured by ticker BND, closed higher on the week.

SPY price action suggests that equities may be in consolidation.

Bonds appear to be established in a downward trend.

Market participant sentiment suggests pessimism.

Economic indicators within the Market Notebook remain mixed.

Jobless claims are to be watched as an important indicator of a potential recession. Thus far, jobless claims are not indicative of a near-term recession.

From a fundamental perspective, the downward trend in bonds seems limited by the fundamentals associated with inflation and recession. If inflation comes down or a recession occurs, the downward trend in bonds could be broken. Potentially, sharply broken.

As a side note, remember high-yield bonds are different animals and will trade more like risk assets.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.