Market Notebook
Discussion –
PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by the ticker SPY, closed higher while bond prices, as measured by the ticker BND, closed modestly lower over the last week.
SPY +1.37%
BND -0.46%
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY price appears to be trending higher.
BND price appears to be trending lower.
SENTIMENT:
The VIX closed the week near 15, hovering at the low end of its recent range and signaling a calm tape even as intraweek geopolitical headlines briefly unsettled the oil and rates markets. Bets for a rate hike continued to rise following the midweek release of the June FOMC minutes, extending the hawkish repricing that has defined 2026 and standing in sharp contrast to the two-cut base case that prevailed at the start of the year. The domestic data calendar was light in the holiday-shortened stretch, leaving Fed communications and the geopolitical backdrop as the week’s primary sentiment drivers.
ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The week’s narrative centered on three threads: the Middle East, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a record-breaking foreign listing.
Escalating U.S.- Iran tensions early in the week pushed WTI crude toward $76 a barrel and lifted Treasury yields on safe-haven positioning and renewed inflation concerns. As de-escalation hopes emerged into Friday, oil retraced toward the low $70s, easing pressure on the long end.
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released midweek, revealed notable internal divergence \[LongDash] several policymakers open to a hike, with discussion of removing the committee’s easing bias amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. The minutes reinforced the market‘s growing conviction that the next move, if any, is more likely a hike than a cut. Attention now turns to new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Earnings were light but instructive – Levi Strauss, PepsiCo, WD-40, and Delta Air Lines offered early reads on the consumer and travel ahead of the heart of Q2 season.
The week ahead brings the unofficial start of Q2 earnings season, with the major money-center banks reporting, alongside the June CPI – the most consequential inflation print before the Fed’s late-July meeting.
All the best during the week ahead!
Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.