Market Notebook

by Cory Haupt | Jan 5, 2026

2025 YEAR IN REVIEW

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by the ticker SPY, and bond prices, as measured by the ticker BND, closed higher over the course of 2025.

SPY prices moved reliably higher once the February-March retracement completed.

BND prices reflected bouts of uncertainty in 2025 with a loosely defined trend higher. Stagnation and consolidation have been the name of the game in BND prices since September.

SPY PRICE ACTION IN 2025 +17.72%
BND PRICE ACTION IN 2025 + 7.08%

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY price appears to be trending upwards.

BND price appears to be in a range-bound trading pattern or consolidation.

SENTIMENT:
Positive momentum in SPY continues as market participants embrace technology stocks and the promise of AI efficiency gains translating to higher margins for corporations.

Market participants appear less clear about where they believe bond prices are headed, given the recent price consolidation in BND. Contributing to the lack of clarity is the limited release of economic data due to the extended government shutdown. Since the U.S. economy appears fairly robust, bond rates will be primarily influenced by inflation expectations.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Economic fundamentals remain positive, with data suggesting the U.S. economy remains resilient. The Federal Reserve appears to be acting appropriately, with two goals in mind: keeping inflation under control and supporting real economic activity.

PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS FOR 2026:
Several exciting products are being implemented in retail investor portfolios, which will carry into 2026 and beyond. Well-constructed portable alpha products in ETF wrappers are now available for retail portfolio construction. In the past, portfolios containing portable alpha components were difficult, if not impossible, to implement in retail portfolios due to complexity and cost. Some believe that the availability of these products will be as, or even more, important to retail investors than the advent of ETFs. We expect to continue implementing these products across client portfolios throughout 2026.

All the best during the week ahead!

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.

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