Market Notebook

Discussion – 

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by the ticker SPY, and bond prices, as measured by the ticker BND, closed lower last week.

SPY    -1.94%
BND    -0.85%

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY price appears to have established a long-term upward trend, with a period of potential consolidation beginning in early November.

BND price appears to be experiencing a short-term pullback within a long-term upward trend.

Both equity and bond prices are at important technical support areas. A breakdown in price from these levels could call into question the longer-term trend for both.

SENTIMENT:
Price consolidation suggests uncertainty about future prices.

Stretched valuations make it increasingly difficult for fundamental-based bargain hunters to find bargains. Stagnating prices make it harder for trend-based momentum traders to deploy more capital.

Trend-based reversion to the mean traders and buy and hold, dollar cost averaging participants are probably sleeping just fine.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The U.S. real economy appears well-positioned for continued growth in 2025.

As always, there will be unidentified growth challenges in 2025. Have a strategy, be prepared, and take advantage of what you know will come once you see it.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.