Market Notebook

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by the ticker SPY, and bond prices, as measured by the ticker BND, closed lower last week.

SPY    -1.38%
BND    -0.85%

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY price appears established in an upward trend.

BND price appears established in an upward trend.

SENTIMENT:
Sentiment was mixed last week as competing factors buffeted market participant confidence.
Treasury yields moved higher with no action from the Federal Reserve, suggesting market participants see inflationary pressures ahead. Corporate earnings appeared mixed with warnings from tech companies related to AI investments. Jobs data fed the idea that the Federal Reserve will continue with rate accommodations and that the economy is still under stress.

Market volatility is likely to increase as the U.S. presidential election nears.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Throughout the tightening cycle, jobless claims have never indicated a recession by our measure. We will continue to monitor weekly jobless claims closely.

Market participants should be on the lookout for recessionary conditions following the first rate cut after a tightening cycle. Thus far, the Federal Reserve has managed the economic cycle well.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.