Market Notebook

PRICE ACTION:
Equity prices, as measured by ticker SPY, and bond prices, as measured by ticker BND, closed nearly unchanged on the week.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
SPY’s price remaining above the 20-day exponential moving average suggests SPY is in an upward trend.

BND’s price action is suggestive of consolidation.

SENTIMENT:
Market participant sentiment appears neutral.

ECONOMY AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Economic indicators within the Market Notebook remain mixed. Real economic activity will likely slow over the next few months as the Federal Reserve works to contain inflationary pressures.

Jobless claims are to be watched as a key indicator of a potential recession.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined further in March. The narrative from The Conference Board predicts a recession in mid 2023.

GEOPOLITICAL:
I will leave the following comment in the Notebook for several weeks. This is a long-term dynamic to be internalized.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that global trade relationships are at risk of significant realignment. International polarization and the move away from globalization will create new risks and opportunities for investors and their portfolios.

All the best during the week ahead!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this discussion should be considered investment advice. The content of this discussion is strictly my personal opinion and subject to change at a moment’s notice. Investment advice can only be provided to you by your investment professional and not by a general market discussion such as this one. If you wish to speak with an investment advisor, contact us. We can probably help.